Bitcoin hasn’t had a great time in terms of its price point for a while. Analysts have been busy predicting the direction the token will take in the future. The latest prediction from a leading crypto analyst claims that Bitcoin might plunge down to $1700 by June. The analyst also adds that while bulls market may be on the horizon, bears would have a shot as well.
Murad Mahmudov, a Princeton graduate and a diehard crypto trader and hedge fund head, broke down why the “famous 200-week moving average (MA) support” for Bitcoin will break in coming months. Here’s the Twitter thread for the same:
1/ Why I believe the famous 200-Week Moving Average support from the last bear cycle WILL BREAK during this bear market cycle:
— Murad Mahmudov ? (@MustStopMurad) January 31, 2019
He noted crypto market’s historical cycles, three of which have been fleshed out so far. Mahmudov observed that the key MA25, MA50, MA100, and MA200 were shifted ‘one level’ back with each cycle.” The chart further illustrates that each multi-year market cycle, the importance of each MA level decreases, as averages pertaining to longer time frames takes their place.
While the technical analysis is all great, the fundamental analysis isn’t included in the conclusion. Noting the same, Mahmudov remarked that just as the 200-week moving average was a level of utmost importance for BTC from 2015 to 2018, MA300 (and potentially MA400 too) will be integral lines to watch in the coming months.
Furthermore, as they say, history repeats itself and observing the charts Mahmudov asserts that Bitcoin will sink near the $1700 mark. He added that Bitcoin could “wick down” to as low as MA350~400 in the $1,700 range, “due to past patterns and how particularly overstretched the 2017 bubble was.”
Mahmudov’s analysis did no go well with his peers, Alex Krüger, a New York-based macro markets researcher, remarked, “300 MA, what a joke, only in crypto.” Echoing Krüger’s comment, Four Aces noted that 300 MA doesn’t have as much inherent importance as the 200 MA does.
On the other hand, Armin Van Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency skeptic noted that the monumental run-up of 2017 saw Parabolic Trav, who capitulated, become a popular figure. He noted that the bear market of 2018/2019 had Mahmudov, rhetorically asking the analyst when he would end his enamorment with issuing predictions.