Financial advisory firm Canaccord Genuity publishes analysis on May 9, predicting that bitcoin (BTC) could hit $20,000 by 2021 as per its retrospective projections.
Based on a close similarity between the four-year price cycles of bitcoin during the 2011–2015 and 2015–2019 ranges, the following graph illustrates the prediction:
Canaccord Genuity notes the bitcoin mining rewards schedule to be a plausible cause for these four-year price cycles since the reward drop — which decreases by 50% for every 210,000 blocks mined — has so-far occurred about once every four years. However, the report cautions:
“As always, we caveat this observation with the obvious — this is simply pattern recognition and not reliable fundamental analysis.”
At the beginning of 2018, Michael Graham, the Canaccord Genuity analyst stated that the upswing in regulatory enforcement would likely have a major impact on the crypto market via dislocation (therefore making it hard for crypto assets to be accurately priced).
Just earlier this week Galaxy Digital Founder and CEO Michael Novogratz predicted something on similar lines, wherein he asserts that bitcoin would exceed $20,000 by the end of 2020. Though Novogratz did not provide a specific rationale for his conviction, he did note that bitcoin is in a bull market and is outperforming the price growth of other cryptocurrencies.
Image source: Unsplash.com