The crypto market has been in a frenzy mode for the last 24 hours. The total market value of Bitcoin crossed $1 trillion on Friday. This follows after a consistent rally in BTC price over the last few weeks, consequently reaching a new record high of $57,563 on Feb. 20.
After Tesla’s Bitcoin buy-in, bullish institutional news keeps fueling Bitcoin price while Elon Musk also embraced the latest “laser eye” meme to the joy of hodlers who are itching for a $100,000 BTC price.
This comes as no surprise to stock to flow creator, PlanB who earlier stated in a March 2019 report titled ‘Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity’ that ‘The predicted market value for Bitcoin after May 2020 halving is $1trn, which translates in a Bitcoin price of $55,000’.
According to the pseudonymous analyst who puts BTC price by December 2021 at $100,000, Bitcoin is on track with its post halving performance.
ETH/USD Daily Chart
The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum rose to new all-time highs of $2,041 on Feb. 20 spurred by rising buying interest. On-chain analytics, Glassnode indicated that ETH’s total value in the ETH 2.0 deposit contract just reached an ATH of 3,175,938 ETH.
Multiple Altcoins joined BTC and Ethereum (ETH) in establishing new all-time highs as both centralized and decentralized exchange tokens experienced strong breakouts. UniSwap (UNI) took a blast off, notching new all-time highs of $32.63. The UNI token is up 50.49% in the last 24 hours. SushiSwap also attained record highs of $19.65 on Feb. 20.
Polkadot (DOT) notched new all-time highs of $42.06 to rank fourth largest crypto, pushing Tether and XRP to 6th and 7th place respectively. Chainlink also reached record highs of $36.83. Ethereum trades at $1,976 at the time of writing.
What On-Chain Metrics Say About Bitcoin’s Rally Past $57,500
Alex Kruger, crypto analyst cum economist stated his observations on the latest leg of the Bitcoin bull run:
Observations on the latest leg of this $BTC bull run— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) February 20, 2021
– Perp-spot basis flat (Microstrategy on the bid)
– Futures basis sky high (maybe Blackrock on the bid?)
– Implied vol falling
– 25D skew rising (market buying 3-6M downside)
Leverage is very high but inflows are gargantuan. pic.twitter.com/nR4uwo5YYa
Screening down on what this implies for Bitcoin price, volatility is at the heart of any professional trader as it measures daily average price oscillations and gives insight into market conditions. There are two ways of measuring volatility, either using historical data or analyzing current options market premiums. One thing to note is that a change in volatility is not a bullish nor bearish indicator. Unusually high levels reflect uncertainty and vice versa.
Implied volatility falling as indicated by the analyst may mean that market uncertainty is drastically reducing.
In options markets, skew is the relative richness of put options vs call options, expressed in terms of implied volatility. For options on the same underlying and with the same expiry T, 25d skew focuses on puts with a delta of -25% and calls with a delta of 25% to demonstrate this difference in the market’s perception of implied volatility.
A market in positive skew is “pricing in optimism” conversely, a market in negative skew is pricing in pessimism. Coin-holders or Miners may be buying puts to hedge downside risk. Therefore a rising 25D skew as indicated by the analyst is a bullish one.
Glassnode also indicated that the BTC number of addresses in profit (7d MA) just reached an ATH of 34,827,881.101 which may also be a bullish signal.
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